Book123

    Free register and download UseNet downloader, then you can FREE Download from UseNet.

    Download without Limit " Nassim Nicholas - The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable " from UseNet for FREE!

This audiobook is BRAND NEW (it was just published recently)

I found this audio book last week as one of the the best selling amazon business book of that week. Back then I heard a lot of stories about it from other copywriters. (The book version that i saw was about 400 pages).

Why did I upload this 12 CD collection as a copywriter?

The answer = Storytelling is on of my favorite 'persuasion' subjects!

I know a money manager who can always tell a story to explain where markets are supposedly heading. He is a good storyteller, though a rather poor investor. He is a victim of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls the narrative fallacy: the human desire to see the order in everything?to make a sensible yarn of what might, in reality, be unpredictable or random. In this audio book Nassim Nicholas speaks about the traps of logic, the formalized thought patterns, that snare most of us.

Enjoy this work!

DaCosta

If you like it, at least say THANKS

PS - If you want to Buy Book at Lowest Price on Amazon

download this, please download it as quick as possible, I need the bandwidth to upload some more new stuff here!

(That means that i won't be able to share my own uploads for a long time)

Product Details

* Audio CD

* Publisher: Recorded Books (August 2007)

* Language: English

* ISBN-10: 1428166556

* ISBN-13: 978-1428166554

* Product Dimensions: 5.8 x 5.3 x 1.5 inches

Review:

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it?s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

From Booklist

In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert Taylor

Code: http://rapidshare.com/files/350605615/The_Black_Swan_-_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable-www.feedurbrain.com.part6.rar http://rapidshare.com/files/350605797/The_Black_Swan_-_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable-www.feedurbrain.com.part5.rar http://rapidshare.com/files/350605821/The_Black_Swan_-_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable-www.feedurbrain.com.part4.rar http://rapidshare.com/files/350605504/The_Black_Swan_-_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable-www.feedurbrain.com.part2.rar http://rapidshare.com/files/350605514/The_Black_Swan_-_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable-www.feedurbrain.com.part1.rar

Rating:
2.5 out of 5 by Book123