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Lectures on Numerical Methods in Bifurcation Problems
Methods for Finding Zeros in Polynomials
Lectures on Stochastic Flows and Applications
Educational Psychology by Edward L. Thorndike
The Last Days of Tolstoy by V. G. Chertkov
Globalization and Responsibility
Lectures on Siegel Modular Forms and Representation by Quadratic Forms
Lectures on Topics In One-Parameter Bifurcation Problems
History of the Incas by Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa
Linear Algebra: Theorems and Applications
Lectures on Stochastic Differential Equations and Malliavin Calculus
A Short Biographical Dictionary of English Literature
Lectures on Sieve Methods and Prime Number Theory
Dollars and Sense by William Crosbie Hunter
The Theory of the Theatre by Clayton Hamilton
The Mathematics of Investment
Occupiers of Wall Street: Losers or Game Changers
The Solution of the Pyramid Problem
Lectures on Moduli of Curves
Walden by Henry David Thoreau
Methods for Finding Zeros in Polynomials
Lectures on Stochastic Flows and Applications
Educational Psychology by Edward L. Thorndike
The Last Days of Tolstoy by V. G. Chertkov
Globalization and Responsibility
Lectures on Siegel Modular Forms and Representation by Quadratic Forms
Lectures on Topics In One-Parameter Bifurcation Problems
History of the Incas by Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa
Linear Algebra: Theorems and Applications
Lectures on Stochastic Differential Equations and Malliavin Calculus
A Short Biographical Dictionary of English Literature
Lectures on Sieve Methods and Prime Number Theory
Dollars and Sense by William Crosbie Hunter
The Theory of the Theatre by Clayton Hamilton
The Mathematics of Investment
Occupiers of Wall Street: Losers or Game Changers
The Solution of the Pyramid Problem
Lectures on Moduli of Curves
Walden by Henry David Thoreau
Useful Links
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"
Posted on 2010-04-13
|
More A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book
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2.5 out of 5 by Book123 |
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