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History/Military Троя и троянцы. Боги и герои города-призрака
History/Military The Collapse Of The Democratic Presidential Majority: Realignment, Dealignment, And Electoral Change From Franklin Roosevelt To Bill Clinton (Transforming American Politics)
History/Military Ernesto "Che" Guevara (The Great Hispanic Heritage)
History/Military Luger Accessories
History/Military Congress, Progressive Reform, and the New American State
History/Military Battle in the Baltics 1944-45: The Fighting for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, a Photographic History
History/Military Native Vote: American Indians, the Voting Rights Act, and the Right to Vote
History/Military The Martinsyde Elephant (Profile Publications Number 200)
History/Military The M.Bloch 151 & 152 (Profile Publications Number 201)
History/Military The Douglas A-20 (7A to Boston III) (Profile Publications Number 202)
History/Military The Heinkel He 162 (Profile Publications Number 203)
History/Military Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a One-Party Dominant State
History/Military Globalization of Capital and the Nation-State: Imperialism, Class Struggle, and the State in the Age of Global Capitalism
History/Military Performances of the Sacred in Late Medieval and Early Modern England (Repost)
History/Military Demography and Roman Society (Ancient Society and History)
History/Military Reducing Poverty Through Growth And Social Policy Reform in Russia (Directions in Development)
History/Military Screening Politics; The Politician in American Movies, 1931-2001
History/Military Between Self-Determination and Dependency: Jamaica's Foreign Relations 1972-1989
History/Military Political Psychology: Key Readings
History/Military Anglo-Norman Studies 24: Proceedings of the Battle Conference 2001
History/Military The Collapse Of The Democratic Presidential Majority: Realignment, Dealignment, And Electoral Change From Franklin Roosevelt To Bill Clinton (Transforming American Politics)
History/Military Ernesto "Che" Guevara (The Great Hispanic Heritage)
History/Military Luger Accessories
History/Military Congress, Progressive Reform, and the New American State
History/Military Battle in the Baltics 1944-45: The Fighting for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, a Photographic History
History/Military Native Vote: American Indians, the Voting Rights Act, and the Right to Vote
History/Military The Martinsyde Elephant (Profile Publications Number 200)
History/Military The M.Bloch 151 & 152 (Profile Publications Number 201)
History/Military The Douglas A-20 (7A to Boston III) (Profile Publications Number 202)
History/Military The Heinkel He 162 (Profile Publications Number 203)
History/Military Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a One-Party Dominant State
History/Military Globalization of Capital and the Nation-State: Imperialism, Class Struggle, and the State in the Age of Global Capitalism
History/Military Performances of the Sacred in Late Medieval and Early Modern England (Repost)
History/Military Demography and Roman Society (Ancient Society and History)
History/Military Reducing Poverty Through Growth And Social Policy Reform in Russia (Directions in Development)
History/Military Screening Politics; The Politician in American Movies, 1931-2001
History/Military Between Self-Determination and Dependency: Jamaica's Foreign Relations 1972-1989
History/Military Political Psychology: Key Readings
History/Military Anglo-Norman Studies 24: Proceedings of the Battle Conference 2001
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History/Military Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"
Posted on 2010-03-16
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More Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Amazon.com Review Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." From Booklist In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Contents
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