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Mathematics Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts
Posted on 2010-04-13
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Author: Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow
Publisher: Wiley (2006) Binding: Hardcover, 338 pages pricer: $75.00 ISBN-10: 0470029994 editorialreviews Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by:
An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences. failed failed
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 | Science/Engineering Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, "Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities"Wiley | 2006-09-14 | ISBN:0470029994 | 338 pages | PDF | 2 MbElicitation is the process of e ... |
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