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University Of Chicago, "The Economic Future Of Nuclear Power A Study Conducted At The University Of Chicago"

Any policies concerned with the future of nuclear power must funnel through the price at which nuclear power will enter the marketplace, if nuclear power is to be viable. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), as the price at the busbar needed to cover the operating plus annualized capital costs of nuclear power, must be competitive with prices of other baseload electricity. Part One attempts to develop the most reliable estimates possible of the future busbar cost of nuclear electricity. A starting point is estimates of nuclear generator costs from previous studies. These estimates for the United States are reviewed in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 is a parallel international review. In light of the importance of capital costs and the role they have played in contributing to differences in LCOE estimates, Chapter 3 is devoted to the anatomy of the estimation of capital costs. An aim is to narrow the range of uncertainty in estimates of future capital costs. Chapter 4 proceeds to another major reason for uncertainty about nuclear costs, which is learning from experience in constructing facilities. Drawing on analyses of earlier nuclear experience and innovations in manufacturing more generally, estimates are developed of the extent to which costs can be expected to fall between the building of the first and nth plants of a given technology. Chapter 5 develops the financial model used in this study to evaluate the prospects for nuclear power. The complications of the tax system and of private sector financing as influenced by risk are introduced. No-policy estimates of nuclear LCOEs are estimated to set the stage for the later policy analysis.

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