History/Military Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties (R20070819V)

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International Security and Commerce Program, "Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties "

Seismology now provides a means to monitor underground nuclear explosions down to low yields, even when strenuous attempts are made to evade the monitoring system. By doing so, seismology plays a central role in verifying arms control agreements that limit the testing of nuclear weapons. Seismology, however, is like any other technology: it has both strengths and limitations. If the capabilities of seismic monitoring are to be fully realized, it is necessary to understand both how the strengths can be used and how the limitations can be avoided. To a great extent, the capabilities of any given seismic monitoring network are determined by how the monitoring task is approached and what supplementary provisions are negotiated within the treaty. If agreements can be negotiated to reduce uncertainty, then seismology can be very effective and extremely low yields could be monitored with high confidence. This report addresses two key questions:

1. down to what size explosion can underground testing be seismically monitored with high confidence, and

2. how accurately can the yields of underground explosions be measured seismically?

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