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Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications By Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Lowell H. Schwartz, Catherine Yusupov

As Russia's economy has grown, so have the country's global involvement and influence, which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes, as the August 2008 conflict in Georgia demonstrated. Despite the two countries' many disagreements and the rising tension between them, the United States and Russia share some key interests and goals. In this monograph, the authors assess Russia's strategic interests and the factors that influence Russian foreign policy broadly. They examine Russia's domestic policies, economic development, and views of the world, as well as how these translate into security policies at home and abroad. They then consider the implications of Russia's evolving approaches for U.S. interests.

The authors find that Russia's rising confidence will continue to create challenges for U.S. policymakers. The U.S. goal must therefore be to improve relations with Russia and build on shared views and shared interests, rather than to pursue coercive mechanisms that can easily backfire. Among other steps, the authors recommend that Washington

* vigorously pursue new arms control agreements with Moscow

* allay Russian fears about proposed U.S. missile defenses in Europe

* reevaluate its promotion of energy pipeline routes that circumvent Russia

* resume consistent, high-level consultations, including military-to-military contacts.

If Russo-U.S. relations do not improve, the United States must find ways to keep poor relations with Russia from turning into adversarial ones. The Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force have important roles to play in either scenario.



Contents

Russian Foreign Policy, Sources and Implications (2009)

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Preface

RAND Project AIR FORCE

Contents

Figures

Summary

Domestic Issues

The Economy

Foreign Policy

Security Policy

Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

A New Russia

Russia’s Security Outlook

U.S. Security Interests

Research Approach

Monograph Outline

CHAPTER TWO

Russia’s Domestic Situation

Politics in Putin’s Russia: Centralization and Control

Threats from Within: Domestic Security Issues

Russian Public Opinion

Implications of Domestic Threats for Foreign Policy

CHAPTER THREE

Russia’s Economy and Russian Resources for Defense

Outlook for the Russian Economy

Defense Spending

The Defense Industry

CHAPTER FOUR

Russian Foreign Policy

Russian Foreign Policy: Focus on Prestige and Economic Growth

Russia’s Post-Soviet Neighbors

Europe

The Middle East

Asia

Transnational Threats

The United States

Russian Public Opinion on Foreign Policy

Russia’s Evolving Goals

CHAPTER FIVE

Russia’s Defense and Security Policy

Goals and Doctrine

Manpower

Counterterrorism, Ground, and Naval Forces

Russia’s Air Force: Capabilities and Trajectory

Strategic Nuclear Forces

CHAPTER SIX

Today’s Russia: Implications for the United States

A Dif.cult Partner

The Costs of Discord: Why a Better Relationship Is in U.S. Interests

Implications of Russian Arms Sales for U.S. Policy

Strategies for Fostering Cooperation for the U.S. Government and the U.S. Air Force

Managing Discord

Bibliography

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