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Nonfiction "Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future" by Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis

Posted on 2010-06-19




Name:Nonfiction "Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future" by Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis
ASIN/ISBN:0231132121
Publish Date:2007
Pages:247 pages
File size:5 Mb
Publish Date: 2007
ISBN: 0231132121
Pages: 247 pages
File Type: PDF
File Size: 5 Mb
Other Info: Columbia University Press
   Nonfiction "Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future"  by Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis



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"Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future" by Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis

The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.

A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."

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• | •

Contents

Preface

Mathematical Fishing

Mathematical Models: Escaping from Reality

Yucca Mountain: A Million Years of Certainty

How Fast the Rising Sea ?

Following a Wayward Rule

Beaches in an Expected Universe

Giant Cups of Poison

Invasive Plants: An Environmental Apocalypse

A Promise Unfulfilled

Appendix

References

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