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History/Military Long Swings in Urban Development
Posted on 2010-03-16
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More Manuel Gottlieb, "Long Swings in Urban Development". Work on this book was initiated some years ago as I tried to expand a chapter on long building cycles for use in a text on business fluctuations. While preparing to write that chapter, I had reviewed the available published literature, which I found meaty in some respects and thin in others. The descriptive portion of the literature had chiefly taken the form of local experience and was often insular in approach. Literature dealing with nationwide movements had chiefly concentrated upon the task of preparing usable national estimates of building activity from sample data. Systematic analysis of lçcal swings had been commenced, but had not been carried to completion, by Arthur Burns, under the aegis of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Analysis on a somewhat larger scale, but with greater unevenness, had been undertaken in the older writings of Long and Pearson. A few daring econometricians had tried to distill patterns of behavior out of fragments of time series. Cairncross and Thomas in England, and Kuznets and Abramovitz in the United States, had traced many of the interconnections of building swings with over-all flows of output, capital, and labor. LINKS
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