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Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows over the next five years will be pushed upwards by buoyant growth, competitive pressures and improvements in business environments in most countries. But macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks will constrain flows. Global FDI recovered strongly in 2004-06 after a deep three-year slump. Following a further increase in FDI inflows in 2007, albeit at a slower rate than annual average growth in 2004-06, a modest and temporary decline in global FDI inflows is expected in 2008. Global FDI inflows are projected to return to steady growth in 2009-11 and to reach US$1.6trn by 2011.

There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about the medium-term prospects for FDI. These include the ongoing global trend towards better business environments, technological change and the search for competitively priced skills; and sharper global competition pushing companies to seek lower-cost destinations. On balance, most host and home governments will continue to encourage FDI. However, downside risks loom large. These range from the risks emanating from global financial turbulence to a host of political risks.

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