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La théorie de la décision
Posted on 2011-02-11
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More Robert Kast, "" La difficulté pour appréhender un problème - en amont de la prise de décision - et le besoin de justifier ses choix - en aval - sont autant d’obstacles qui ont conduit mathématiciens et économistes à formaliser une « théorie de la décision ». Robert Kast, directeur de recherche au CNRS , nous en expose dans son dernier ouvrage les principaux éléments. On y apprend que toute décision n’est spécifique aux circonstances que dans une certaine mesure, même si la perception de l’incertitude est individuelle. Cette originalité oblige cependant la théorie à évoluer constamment avec les paramètres propres aux décideurs, par exemple leur degré d’aversion pour le risque. Les choix individuels sont basés sur « l’utilité espérée » : chacun, assimilé à un joueur, cherche à maximiser ses gains, ou conséquences attendues de ses décisions. L’influence des « adversaires » – à laquelle s’intéresse la théorie des jeux – souligne les limites de qui ne la prend pas en compte et donc n’est pas pertinente dans le cadre de décisions collectives. Download
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