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Science/Engineering Statistical Mechanics, Third Edition
Science/Engineering Essentials of Toxic Chemical Risk: Science and Society
Science/Engineering Telefoncoaching: So machen Sie aus Ihren Mitarbeitern Telefonprofis
Science/Engineering Wireless Communications (Wiley - IEEE)
Science/Engineering Posttraumatische Belastungsstörungen (German Edition)
Science/Engineering Lernplattformen in Schulen: Ansätze für E-Learning und Blended Learning in Präsenzklassen (1 Auflage)
Science/Engineering Stochastik für Einsteiger: Eine Einführung in die faszinierende Welt des Zufalls. Mit über 220 Übungsaufgaben und Lösungen {Repost}
Science/Engineering Testtheorie und Fragebogenkonstruktion (Springer-Lehrbuch)
Science/Engineering Centrifugal Pumps, 2nd Edition
Science/Engineering Computational Intelligence for Modelling and Prediction (Studies in Computational Intelligence) 1 edition {Repost}
Science/Engineering Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World {repost}
Science/Engineering Introduction to Biophotonics (repost)
Science/Engineering The Art and Science of Psychotherapy (repost)
Science/Engineering Advances in Chemical Physics - Volume 15: Stochastic Processes in Chemical Physics
Science/Engineering "Emulsion Science: Basic Principles" (repost)
Science/Engineering Elementary Principles of Chemical Processes 3rd edition
Science/Engineering Boundary Element Analysis (repost)
Science/Engineering Collection of books on physics 2
Science/Engineering A Practical Handbook of Preparative HPLC by Donald A. Wellings (Repost)
Science/Engineering Reviews of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 184 by George W. Ware
Science/Engineering Essentials of Toxic Chemical Risk: Science and Society
Science/Engineering Telefoncoaching: So machen Sie aus Ihren Mitarbeitern Telefonprofis
Science/Engineering Wireless Communications (Wiley - IEEE)
Science/Engineering Posttraumatische Belastungsstörungen (German Edition)
Science/Engineering Lernplattformen in Schulen: Ansätze für E-Learning und Blended Learning in Präsenzklassen (1 Auflage)
Science/Engineering Stochastik für Einsteiger: Eine Einführung in die faszinierende Welt des Zufalls. Mit über 220 Übungsaufgaben und Lösungen {Repost}
Science/Engineering Testtheorie und Fragebogenkonstruktion (Springer-Lehrbuch)
Science/Engineering Centrifugal Pumps, 2nd Edition
Science/Engineering Computational Intelligence for Modelling and Prediction (Studies in Computational Intelligence) 1 edition {Repost}
Science/Engineering Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World {repost}
Science/Engineering Introduction to Biophotonics (repost)
Science/Engineering The Art and Science of Psychotherapy (repost)
Science/Engineering Advances in Chemical Physics - Volume 15: Stochastic Processes in Chemical Physics
Science/Engineering "Emulsion Science: Basic Principles" (repost)
Science/Engineering Elementary Principles of Chemical Processes 3rd edition
Science/Engineering Boundary Element Analysis (repost)
Science/Engineering Collection of books on physics 2
Science/Engineering A Practical Handbook of Preparative HPLC by Donald A. Wellings (Repost)
Science/Engineering Reviews of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 184 by George W. Ware
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Science/Engineering Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Zeuthen Lectures)
Posted on 2010-03-15
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More Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Zeuthen Lectures) Economies evolve and are subject to sudden shifts precipitated by legislative changes, economic policy, major discoveries, and political turmoil. Macroeconometric models are a very imperfect tool for forecasting this highly complicated and changing process. Ignoring these factors leads to a wide discrepancy between theory and practice. In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting, they look at the implications for causal modeling, present a taxonomy of forecast errors, and delineate the sources of forecast failure. They show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors—interacting with model misspecification, collinearity, and inconsistent estimation—are the dominant source of systematic failure. They then consider various approaches for avoiding systematic forecasting errors, including intercept corrections, differencing, co-breaking, and modeling regime shifts; they emphasize the distinction between equilibrium correction (based on cointegration) and error correction (automatically offsetting past errors). Finally, they present three applications to test the implications of their framework. Their results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research, model formulation, the testing of economic hypotheses, and model-based policy analyses. Mirror -> http://www.filefactory.com/file/43c332/n/Fdd4_tar_gz
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