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John Peterson "Defending Arabia"

Ever since Britain’s 1968 announcement that it planned to withdraw from east of the Suez Canal, there have been repeated efforts to find an effective Persian Gulf security system. The region is continually at war or stands on the brink of it, is a source of international terrorism, and has two important states seeking weapons of mass destruction. These facts are depressing testimony to the failure of attempts by regional and outside actors alike to develop a functional security system. Today’s system depends on the readiness of the United States to wage large and, with weapons of mass destruction in the region, increasingly dangerous wars and to maintain a military presence despite local ambivalence to it. With Gulf oil supplies as vital as ever to the global economy, the quest for reliable security has never been more important. Yet, even during this conflict, there has been little public debate in the region, Europe, or the United States, and little genuine analysis, on the shape of a post-war system to help break the cycle of instability and conflict that has plagued the region. Opponents of war argue that it is destabilizing the region, which may or may not be so. But they have fur- nished no practical ideas on how to improve or replace the current security arrangement, which has lurched from crisis to crisis. Meanwhile, U.S. planners are giving due attention to the political and economic reconstruction of Iraq; yet these plans cannot be formulated in isolation. Reconstructing and democratizing Iraq, while necessary, will be insufficient if a more stable system is not put in place across the region.

The reconstruction of Iraq intersects with two other, more subtle developments that, when combined with Saddam’s removal, amount to a watershed that permits a new and better security system to be built. One is the growing acceptance by elites in Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of the nee for domestic reform. The other development, obscured by rhetoric on both sides, is the growing possibility that America and Iran can do business with each other.

This issue paper examines options for a post-Saddam Gulf security system. It assumes that the Iraqi regime will be comprehensively defeated in the war, that Iraq will no implode into civil war, and that a U.S.-led coalition will oversee the emergence of a new Iraqi government that wi have a modicum of internal legitimacy and external accep tance. A fundamentally new Iraqi regime is necessary but we argue, insufficient for lasting Gulf security.

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