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Stephen R. Watson, Dennis M. Buede, "Decision Synthesis: The Principles and Practice of Decision Analysis"

This book provides a synthesis of the theory of decision making and its practical application in decision analysis. It gives an up-to-date account of the subject, and is intended for both students and specialists, and as a handbook for those who need to apply decision analysis in practice. Part 1 provides a detailed guide to the principles of decision theory. The authors introduce the literature on key ideas such as value theory, subjective probability theory and utility theory, and assess how these ideas, developed for individual decision makers, may apply to decision-making within organisations. Part 2 deals with the various strategies and techniques employed in decision analysis, and the application of decision theory in particular, documented cases. The authors also appraise the validity and usefulness of these procedures of decision synthesis. The book will be of interest to students and teachers of the theory and practice of decision analysis, and to psychologists, economists and operations researchers in universities and business schools; it will also be invaluable as a handbook to these and to professional managers in business and government, and to management consultants.

Contents

List of figures; List of tables; Foreword; Preface; 1. Introduction and reader's guide; Part I. Theory: 2. Rational decision-making; 3. Decision theory; 4. The psychology of decision-making; 5. Decision analysis in organisations; 6. Analytic strategy; 7. Analytic tactics; 8. Applications; 9. Decision synthesis appraised; References; Index.

Summary: A classic written by two masters

Rating: 5

Recently assigned a task to develop a value model for a large government agency, I needed a one-stop book to refresh my decision analysis techniques. I am acquainted with Buede's book, "The Engineering Design of Systems" so I went to it. "Decision Synthesis" was cited as a reference. While "Decision Synthesis" was written in 1987, it is still very current and incredibly useful. It has helped me avoid making stupid mistakes and suggest useful approaches that have helped me satisfy my customer's needs.

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