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& 8220;

The Secret of Pansak

It has yet to begin and already it mustn't be. Throughout the world the media has

determined that this will be the "Asian century". By the beginning of the new

millennium it became fashionable to evoke the China of miracles, now joined by India.

The slogan-makers coined a new term: Chindia, the Sino-Indian centaur of nearly two

and a half billion people predestined for global hegemony. Some with alarm, some

with hope, some just to follow the current; economists, journalists and politicians

routinely rattle off the standard predictions for Asia's supplanting the West. By

mid-century, the economy of Chindia could equal that of the rest of the planet, with a

lock on the development of leading technologies-instrument of control. According to

the American futurologists at the National Intelligence Council, the annus horribilis

will be 2040, when the Chinese GDP surpasses America's while India will reach third

place in 2030, overtaking Japan and Germany. Recent CIA analyses already put the

Chinese GDP at second place, at least in terms of purchasing power parity. Thus the

anticipated date would actually be 2015.

Nor is it just the economy. At play is global power. Sooner or later, America

will no longer be the only one in command, assuming that's how it stands today. The

competition is open to determine who will join, and perhaps succeed, it as

"hyperpower". Candidate number one is China, especially if it manages to draw India

and a good part of Asia into its orbit. If the Middle Kingdom is the anti-America, the

Indian giant is the marginal quantity, the swing power that will assign victory to

Beijing or Washington.

So says mainstream opinion, distilled in intelligence laboratories. A cocktail of

economics, philosophy of history and strategic thought, plus a drop of prognostication,

to be served hot (as the media is wont to do). The stimulating effect is guaranteed by

the diffused American and European ignorance of that which China and India-two

civilizations before they were states-meant for the world economy until less than two

centuries ago: in 1830 still, more than half of global production came from the two

Asian colossi. The CIA scenario for 2040 would hence be a return to past glories, in a

totally new context.

& 8221;

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