Categories
Technical
Study
Novel
Nonfiction
Health
Tutorial
Entertainment
Business
Magazine
Arts & Design
Audiobooks & Video Training
Cultures & Languages
Family & Home
Law & Politics
Lyrics & Music
Software Related
eBook Torrents
Uncategorized
Study
Novel
Nonfiction
Health
Tutorial
Entertainment
Business
Magazine
Arts & Design
Audiobooks & Video Training
Cultures & Languages
Family & Home
Law & Politics
Lyrics & Music
Software Related
eBook Torrents
Uncategorized
Share With Friends
Archive by Date
2012-08-06
2012-08-05
2012-08-04
2012-08-03
2012-08-02
2012-08-01
2012-07-31
2012-07-30
2012-07-29
2012-07-28
2012-08-05
2012-08-04
2012-08-03
2012-08-02
2012-08-01
2012-07-31
2012-07-30
2012-07-29
2012-07-28
Search Tag
Pseudogenes
iDENTIFY
卫星电视
Acteon
Rahayu
Vigor
lieux
lker
Vespa
SNAP
Lacoste
Chablais
Memorie
Waking
银翅:中国的地方社会与文化变迁
Despicables
Droplets
Handelsunternehmen
historische
Neocortex
econom
Cozum
Iconoclast
Serben
Yorker
Awaking
Olsson
Januarry
dynamics
Pharaonen
2574
Olak
laparoscopic
GRIGSBY
59272
periodic
十字军
Tubbea
Gammelpot
阴经
Besitz
Lennart
Fabriken
Evolutions
rendus
Pesson
Candyman
Halpin
comptes
skugga
Newest
Lectures on Numerical Methods in Bifurcation Problems
Methods for Finding Zeros in Polynomials
Lectures on Stochastic Flows and Applications
Educational Psychology by Edward L. Thorndike
The Last Days of Tolstoy by V. G. Chertkov
Globalization and Responsibility
Lectures on Siegel Modular Forms and Representation by Quadratic Forms
Lectures on Topics In One-Parameter Bifurcation Problems
History of the Incas by Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa
Linear Algebra: Theorems and Applications
Lectures on Stochastic Differential Equations and Malliavin Calculus
A Short Biographical Dictionary of English Literature
Lectures on Sieve Methods and Prime Number Theory
Dollars and Sense by William Crosbie Hunter
The Theory of the Theatre by Clayton Hamilton
The Mathematics of Investment
Occupiers of Wall Street: Losers or Game Changers
The Solution of the Pyramid Problem
Lectures on Moduli of Curves
Walden by Henry David Thoreau
Methods for Finding Zeros in Polynomials
Lectures on Stochastic Flows and Applications
Educational Psychology by Edward L. Thorndike
The Last Days of Tolstoy by V. G. Chertkov
Globalization and Responsibility
Lectures on Siegel Modular Forms and Representation by Quadratic Forms
Lectures on Topics In One-Parameter Bifurcation Problems
History of the Incas by Pedro Sarmiento de Gamboa
Linear Algebra: Theorems and Applications
Lectures on Stochastic Differential Equations and Malliavin Calculus
A Short Biographical Dictionary of English Literature
Lectures on Sieve Methods and Prime Number Theory
Dollars and Sense by William Crosbie Hunter
The Theory of the Theatre by Clayton Hamilton
The Mathematics of Investment
Occupiers of Wall Street: Losers or Game Changers
The Solution of the Pyramid Problem
Lectures on Moduli of Curves
Walden by Henry David Thoreau
Useful Links
Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
Posted on 2010-04-01
|
More Willard Wells, "" This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class” to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula. Download Not all books on / appear on the homepage. In order not to miss many of them follow Download Link (Ebooks section) (see top of each page on AH) and visit too :) Thank you :) Thank you for the post!
Rating:
2.5 out of 5 by Book123 |
Download Links | |
Server | Status |
---|---|
Direct Download Link 1 | Alive |
Direct Download Link 2 | Alive |
Download Link (Depositfiles.com) | Alive |
Download Link (Uploading.com) | Alive |
Download Link (Mirror) | Alive |
Buy This Book at Best Price >> |
Like this article?! Give us +1: