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Andrew F. Krepinevich, "7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century"

A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.

Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.

China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.

Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.

What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?

These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the left for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.

Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.

As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.

Warning: All quotes and citations in Chapters 1-7 dated after Fall 2008 are fabrications. See page 29 for details. Therefore it is extremely dangerous to "quote" this book out of context.

Contents

& 8220;Maps

Introduction: A Glimpse of the Future

 Pearl Harbor

 The Dawn of Blitzkrieg

 Millennium Challenge

 Yoda

 Scenarios: Preparing for an Uncertain Future

 Leaving the Comfort Zone

 Don't Try to Predict the Future-You Can't

 Scenarios and Strategy

 Why Do We Have A Hard Time Changing Our Vision?

 Thinking About the Next War

 "The Streetfighter State"

 Insights from "The Streetfighter State"

1 The Collapse of Pakistan

 Assassination

 "The Century's Greatest Crisis"

 The Slow Disintegration of Pakistan

 The Rise of Radical Islamism: The Madrassas

 The Ungoverned Areas and the Radical Islamist Movement

 Run-Up to the Current Crisis

 What Is to Be Done?

2 War Comes to America

 Ten Determined Men

 Remember the Alamo?

 No Fingerprints?

 The Red Connection

 The Spartacus Effect

 "My Fellow Americans"

 "Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0"

3 Pandemic

 South of the Border, Down Mexico Way...

 The Pandemic "Plague"

 A Global Economy In Crisis

 An Imposing Enemy

 "Plague" In the Information Age

 Chaos on America's Doorstep

 Go North, Young Man...

 The Shadow of Death

 How Did It Happen?

 The World's Weak Defenses

 Globalization: The Great Enabler?

 Waging War on Pandemic Influenza

 Mexican Exodus

 "Moonshine"

 The Coming Wave

4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel

 An Echo from the Past

 The Second Lebanon War

 Iraq and the Sunni Arab States

 Iran Ascendant

 The Mullahs' Descent

 The Growing Crisis

 The 28 Mordad

 The Sinking of the Moshe Dayan

 "Greater Than Entebbe"

 Sliding Toward Armageddon

 An Iranian "Guarantee"?

 The View from Washington

 The Last Hours of Peace?

5 China's "Assassin's Mace"

 The Last Days of Peace?

 Thinking About the Day After Tomorrow

 Dragon or Panda?

 The Sputtering Engine of Growth

 Is Demography Destiny?

 The Little Violent Emperors

 Water

 The Long Path to War

 China's Military Transformation: The Assassin's Mace

 China's Threat to the Global Commons

 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Command of the Sea and Undersea

 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Access to Space

 Chinese Threats to Cyberspace

 China's Strategic Depth

 China's Crisis

 Caught Napping

 We Seek No Wider Conflict

6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy

 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Shipping Network

 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Energy Trade

 The Forces of Disorder

 "The Platforms Are Burning"

 "The Mother of All Oil Fires"

 The Cyberblockade

 Baby Hiroshima

 Blue Christmas

7 Who Lost Iraq?

 The "Blame Game"

 Not So Fast

 Stagflation and Declining U.S. Support

 Iraq's Factions Reemerge

 The Short Recessional

 The Stand at Najaf

 The Long Road Home

 The Shi'a Surge

 The Turks Make Their Move

 Exit the Advisers

 The War Spreads

 On the Outside Looking In

Conclusion: Lighting the Path Ahead

 So What?

 "Wasting Assets"

 What Is Strategy?

 Barriers to Good Strategy

 What Is to Be Done?

 Creating New Paths to the Future

 Concepts of Operations

 Willingness to Designate "Winners" and "Losers"

 A Sense of Urgency

 Sustained Effort

 Emphasis on the Operational Level of War

 The Customer

 Training Facilities

 Resources

 Input in Developing Future Requirements

 Conclusion

Acknowledgments

Index& 8221;

Tags: qWorldPolitics, qMilitaryPolicy, qStrategy, qChina, qForecasting

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See Also:

Niall Ferguson, ed., "Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals"

Joshua Piven & David Borgenicht, "The Complete Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook CD-ROM"

Jack A. Spigarelli, "Crisis Preparedness Handbook: A Comprehensive Guide to Home Storage and Physical Survival (Updated 2nd Edition)"

Matthew Stein, "When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance & Planetary Survival"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"

Niall Ferguson, "The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World, 1700-2000"

Daniel Yergin & Joseph Stanislaw, "The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (revised and updated)"

Francis Fukuyama, "The End of History and the Last Man"

Thomas E. Ricks, "Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq"

Thomas E. Ricks, "The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008"

Thomas P. M. Barnett, "Great Powers: America and the World After Bush"

Thomas L. Friedman, "Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution—and How It Can Renew America"

David E. Sanger, "The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power"

John J. Mearsheimer & Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy"

Ian Bremmer, "The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall"

Susan Faludi, "The Terror Dream: Fear and Fantasy in Post 9/11 America"

Eric Shawn, "The U.N. Exposed: How the United Nations Sabotages America's Security and Fails the World"

David S. Landes, "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor"

Thomas L. Friedman, "The World is Flat 3.0: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century"

Patrick Tyler, "A World of Trouble: The White House and the Middle East--from the Cold War to the War on Terror"

Arthur Goldschmidt & Lawrence Davidson, "A Concise History of the Middle East (8th Edition)"

Thomas L. Friedman, "From Beirut to Jerusalem"

Bernard Lewis, "The Middle East: A Brief History of the Last 2,000 Years"

Constantine C. Menges, "China: The Gathering Threat"

Jasper Becker, "Dragon Rising: An Inside Look At China Today"

Jonathan D. Spence, "The Search for Modern China"

Felipe Fernandez-Armesto, "Millennium: A History of the Last Thousand Years"

Paul Johnson, "Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties (Revised Edition)"

J. M. Roberts, "The New History of the World, 4e"

Tony Judt, "Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945"

J. M. Roberts, "Twentieth Century: The History of the World, 1901 to 2000"

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