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Chinese Literature
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Audiobooks, Literature, and Sound Studies
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A Concise History of Chinese Literature
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Literature 潘维文集
Posted on 2010-04-28
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潘维
一.在农村解决农村问题是条死路 解决农村问题是中国建设事业成败的关键。我国农村虽然有局部的繁荣,但今日的现实是:在国际和国内市场经济的双重挤压下,中国农村已经陷入了绝境,处在破产的边缘,孕育着社会、经济、和政治危机。就已有的理论和经验看,仅从农村的角度来处理农村问题(或曰“三农问题”)显然是个死胡同。 第一,我国的小规模家庭农业不可能“致富”。我国有九亿农村人口,五亿农业劳动力,近二十亿亩耕地。考虑到水旱霜虫等自然灾害和高寒盐碱的贫瘠土地、照顾到休耕退耕的环境需求,农村人均最多两亩地。南方两熟地区人均一亩;北方单熟地区人均三亩,产量相当于南方的一亩。这样的“一亩地经济”,种地养殖可以丰衣足食,甚至还可能略有节余。但要靠一亩地“致富”、追赶发达国家,就像指望美国人靠耕种自家后院成为强国一样荒唐。 第二,就结果而言,分散或合作经营没有重大不同。计划时代的“大锅饭”伤害了农民的劳动热情。但在产业市场的时代,农民的劳动热情“不值钱”,反而比计划时代更少从事农业劳动的热情。在市场全球化的时代,中国的小农还遇到了西方“农业产业”的竞争,其生存条件将快速趋于恶化。 第三,国家补贴对农村不可能产生重大影响。今天的中国是否需要补贴农业呢?当然需要!不过,一个基本的事实必须澄清,世界上哪个国家有能力补贴9亿农村人口,使其收入水准产生有实质意义的大幅提升?每人每月只贴100元,9亿人一年就是1万亿。国家一年的财政收入才1.5—2万亿。 第四,强调耕地私有化没有什么积极意义。起初,支持耕地私有化的人着眼于农民的劳动热情和对土地进行长期稳定的投入。他们没料到,市场会无情地摧毁农民土地投入的热情。今天,支持土地私有化的人着眼于加速土地流转,使土地集中于少数“种田能手”或“养殖大户”。他们不懂得,市场有繁荣就有萧条,耕地是“民工”和乡镇企业工人唯一的“社会保障”,否则在萧条时期他们会从民工变成“流民”。当我们说三亿农村劳力季节性地离开农业,其中半数要季节性地回归农村,依赖耕地生活。农地私有化会断绝农民的回乡之路。还会搞乱农村现有的生存方式。 第五,村长“海选”同农村社会的进步没什么关系。农村基层政权民主化是自上而下强制推行的,迄今已达十年之久。农民对这个“伟大改革”远没有像对“家庭生产责任制”那样热情,基层干部的抵触也很普遍。在全国范围内,“海选”所导致的问题同解决的问题至少一样多。为什么呢?(1)多数决未必正义,在中国农村的宗法社区里则明显不正义。村庄里分大姓小姓,大姓人多。虽然大姓欺负小姓的强权政治早已是事实,可怎么能由官方政策来合理化呢?不懂得农村的社会关系是由血缘和裙带关系主导的,就不可能理解为什么“海选”会在相当多的村庄恢复反动的宗法政治,或催生金权政治及黑社会政治。(2)农民的不满看上去是同基层政权和基层政府的冲突,实际上是农民同中央统筹政策的冲突,更是农民与市场风险的冲突。村官不是政府官员,不拿政府工资,可所有的中央政策都要由村官在自家的乡里乡亲中间最后落实,甚至强迫实施。他们受的教育比普通市民百姓低,收入比城市贫民还少,凭什么要求他们无私奉献?基层政权的领导并不比城里的官员更腐败。何况,有什么道理能说明选举能制止腐败和滥用公权?(3)“海选”,不过是在几十上百户农民家庭里挑个负责的人,没什么可“神圣”的。挑动七十五万个村委会主任带领农民与政府斗法,而且还要人家发动宗族势力来“互斗”,这不可能有利于带领农民离开土地,离开农业,变得富裕。当基层组织形式变来变去,农民的生活条件却得不到改善,这个“责任”必定要由政府来承担。组织农民是绝对必要的,但评价组织形式优劣的标准决不是什么抽象的“权利”,而在农民能否安全地离开土地,离开农业;至少也要有利于农村卫生医疗、道路修建、饮水安全、环境保护、社会秩序、和鳏寡孤独废疾者的基本生活供给。在这个意义上说,农村党支部的领导比“海选”强,不必着急改掉,更不宜“一刀切”地改
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